Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
